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Feeder cattle prices for 2017 and 20181/15/2024 ![]() The increase in placements is interesting because it likely reflects producers selling now to take advantage of strong markets but also some producers being forced to sell feeder cattle a little earlier than expected due to expanding drought in many areas. To me, this report shut down any ideas that herd expansion is happening or will happen in 2023 and that discussion will shift toward whether expansion occurs in 2024. There are two sides of this: (1) heifers are helping to boost inventories now which could be viewed somewhat negatively for prices in the short term but also (2) fewer heifers retained means a smaller calf crop next year which can be viewed as supporting high price levels in the longer term. This is the highest percentage in over 20 years and indicates that producers continue to send many heifers to feed instead of retaining for reproduction. heifers on feed was released with this report and showed that 40 percent feedlot inventories were heifers (chart below). Probably my biggest takeaway from the report is the strong number of heifers on feed. Some of the increase in placements in September could reflect shifts in placement timing from a year ago rather than stronger feeder cattle totals. Feedlot inventories are following the usual pattern of growing seasonally in the fall months (chart above). It was also the first time in 2023 that feedlot inventories have been above year-ago levels. million head of cattle on feed was the second highest October 1 total since 1996 when the series began. However, there is plenty to unpack in this report that has both short term and long-term implications for cattle markets. In the current setting of tighter supplies and smaller calf crops, many might be rightfully surprised to see an increase in any cattle inventory numbers. Placements of cattle on feed were up about 6 percent driven by higher 700-900 pound placements. The latest Cattle on Feed Report raised some eyebrows as it showed a slight (0.6 percent) increase in feedlot inventory from last year. Despite a relatively modest downturn of 6% year-on-year in value, the US remained the third largest export destination by volume and value 87.– Josh Maples, Assistant Professor & Extension Economist, Department of Agricultural Economics, Mississippi State University Korea was a standout with preferential tariffs supporting trade to the market. Despite the increase in total market value, the quantity of exports to Japan declined 5% year-on-year, with a rise in the unit cost but a decrease in volume in both the high-value chilled and lower-value frozen markets. China is the state’s fourth largest chilled beef export market (by quantity) after Japan, the US and South Korea.īeef exports to Japan delivered a solid 5% gain in value year-on-year, reaching just over $401 million 87. Despite the dominance of the lower-value frozen beef market, there is a trend towards a greater proportion of chilled exports, which more than doubled year-on-year to 12% of total trade 87. As a premium product, chilled beef comprises only a small proportion of China’s total beef imports. This increase in value came from both high and low value cuts, with both up by 126% and 98% respectively year-on-year 87. China is the main driver behind this export growth, absorbing an additional 30,000 tonnes (or 91% year-on-year growth) and increasing in value by an incredible 101% year-on-year to more than $500 million 87. NSW exported a total of 219,000 tonnes of beef, valued at $1.8 billion, an increase in value of 22% year-on-year 87.Īsian demand continued to fuel exports. Global demand remained strong for Australian beef exports in 2018–19, with solid competition from global suppliers boosting prices during a time of increased supply. The drought was the dominant driver for the number of cattle on feed, evidenced with feedlots at 79% utilisation, with the sector playing a significant role in managing seasonal variability and enabling the continued delivery of high-quality beef to global customers 28. The number of cattle on feed remained relatively steady on the record 2017–18 numbers, down 0.7% year-on-year but up 23% on the 10-year average. Adult carcase weights were down 4% year-on-year, reflecting the unfavourable seasonal conditions and the higher female slaughter rate 107. The high slaughter rate resulted in an increase in total beef production, up 7% year-on-year to 535,540 tonnes carcase weight 107. Slaughter reflected the high turnoff rate, up 12% year-on-year, and propelled almost entirely by an increase in female slaughter, up 23% on 2017–18 volumes and equated to 52% of the total state adult slaughter for 2018-19 107. ![]() Dry conditions persisted across many of the state’s key cattle production areas compelling many producers to continue to offload stock, and furthering the herd liquidation.
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